Kutyisidzira Kwenyukireya Hakusati Kwambopera
“Kuwanda kwezvombo zvikuru zvino ndikwo chinhu chine ngozi kwazvo chatarisana nepasi rino.”—CRITICAL MASS, RAWILLIAM E. BURROWS NAROBERT WINDREM.
PAMAMBAKWEDZA musi wa25 January 1995, chinhu chinotyisa chakaerekana chaoneka pamasikirini eradar anokurumidza kunyevera kune rumwe rutivi rwekuchamhembe kweRussia. Chitundumuseremusere chainge chakandwa kune imwe nzvimbo pedyo nemhenderekedzo yegungwa yeNorway! Vatekenyi veradar vakazivisa Moscow nezvekusvika kungangoita bhomba renyukireya. Mumaminiti mashomanene, purezidhendi weRussia akapiwa bhegi raive nezvinhu zvemagetsi zvaimugonesa kurayira kuti vadzorere nebhomba renyukireya. Hondo huru yenyukireya yakaita seyaiva yoda kuitika.
Sezvineiwo, kudzikama kwakavapo, uye nzira yaifamba nechitundumuseremusere yakaonekwa kuti yaisatyisidzira Russia. Gare gare zvakazoonekwa kuti chitundumuseremusere chacho chaive chakatakura zvinhu zvekunzvera mamirire okunze. Kunyange zvakadaro, nyaya yaiva muThe Washington Post yakati: “Idzi dzingadai dzakava nguva dzine ngozi kwazvo dzezera renyukireya. Dzinopa kachiedza kekuti michina inogara yakagadzirira inokanda zvombo yeHondo Yemashoko ichiripo, uye kuti inogona sei kukanganisika zvine ngozi, kunyange zvazvo makwikwi enyika dzine simba apera.”
Zvakagadzirira Kushandiswa
Kwemakumi amakore simba renyukireya redzose dziri mbiri yaimbova Soviet Union neUnited States rakanga rakavakirwa papfungwa yokuchengeta zvombo inozivikanwa sekunyatsoziva kuti vanogona kuurayana [mutual assured destruction] (MAD). Chimwe chinokosha cheMAD chaive chirongwa chinonzi kanda paunonyeverwa. Ichi chaipa divi roga roga simbisiro yokuti kana vakarwisa, muvengi wavo aizodzorerawo zvakasimba zvombo zvinorwisa zvisati zvatombosvika kwazvinenge zvichienda. Chinhu chechipiri chinokosha cheMAD chaive chirongwa chinonzi kanda paunorwiswa. Ichi chaireva kukwanisa kudzorera kunyange kana zvombo zvomuvengi zvatoparadza.
Pasinei zvapo nokupera kweHondo Yemashoko, zvinoreva MAD zvichiri kutyisa vanhu. Hungu, matura ezvombo zvenyukireya eUnited States neRussia akaderedzwa zvikuru—vamwe vanoti neinosvika hafu—asi zviuru zvezvombo zvenyukireya zvichiripo. Saka, zvinogona kuita kuti zvombo zvinogona kukandwa netsaona kana kuti pasina mvumo. Uye nemhaka yokuti marudzi maviri ose achiri kutya, zvinoratidzika kuva zvisingabviri, zvokuti mumwe angatanga kurwisa, nhamba huru yezvombo zvinochengetwa zvakagadzirira kushandiswa.
Chokwadi, muna 1994 United States neRussia dzakabvumirana kurega kunongedzerana zvombo. “Kuchinja uku, kunyange kuri chinhu chakanaka, hakuna zvakunoreva muchiuto,” inodaro Scientific American. “Vakuru vakuru vezvombo vanogona kuisazve mashoko enzvimbo dzokubhomba mumakombiyuta anotungamirira mumasekondi mashomanene.”
Zvombo Zvitsva Zvichagadzirwa Nokukurumidza Here?
Chisingafaniri kukanganwiwa ichokwadi chokuti kunzverwa uye kuvandudzwa kwezvombo zvenyukireya kuri kupfuurira. Somuenzaniso muUnited States, mari inotsaurwa gore negore yezvombo zvakadaro inosvika madhora ane mabhiriyoni 171! Muna 1997, The Toronto Star yakashuma kuti: “Nenzira isingafungirwi, United States zvino yava kupedza mari yakawanda pakuchengetedza michina yayo yehondo yenyukireya kukunda yayakapedza muhondo yemashoko. Uye imwe yemari yacho iri kushandiswa pazvirongwa zvisina kujeka zvinonzi nevatsoropodzi zvinogona kuparira makwikwi matsva ezvombo munyika yose.”
Somuenzaniso, nharo huru dzakamuka pamusoro pechirongwa chinokosha mabhiriyoni akawanda emadhora chehurumende yeUnited States chinonzi Stockpile Stewardship and Management Program. Kunyange zvazvo chinangwa chinozivikanwa chechirongwa chacho chiri chekuchengetedza zvombo zvenyukireya zviripo zvino, vatsoropodzi vanoti panewo chimwe chinangwa chakatoshata zvikuru. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists rinoshuma kuti: “Pane zvirongwa zvokuchinja, kuvandudza, kuwiriranisa nomusi, uye kutsiva—kwete chete kungowedzera nguva yechombo chenyukireya . . . asiwo ‘kuchinatsiridza’.”
Muna 1997 nharo huru dzakamuka pamusoro pokugadzirwa kwebhomba renyukireya rinonzi B-61, rinokwanisa kupinda pasi pevhu risati raputika. Saka rinogona kuparadza nzvimbo dzemauto dziri pasi pevhu, mafekitari, uye marabhoritari. Nepo vatsigiri vachitaura kuti rinongova bhomba rekare rakagadziriswa, vatsoropodzi vanoti rinotova bhomba idzva—kuputswa kwakasimba kwevimbiso dzakaitwa nehurumende yeUnited States dzekuti haisi kuzogadzira zvimwe zvombo zvitsva zvenyukireya.
Pasinei nechakaitika, Ted Taylor, musayendisiti wezvenyukireya paYunivhesiti yePrinceton akati: “Ndinodavira kuti rudzi rwokunzvera kuri kuitwa (muUnited States) kuri kuitwawo muRussia, muFrance, muGermany nedzimwe nzvimbo, uye ndinodavira kuti zvimwe zvezvirongwa zvedu zviri kuparira nyika kuti iite makwikwi matsva ezvombo.” Vatsoropodzi vanotiwo kunzvera, kuvandudza, uye kugadzirwa kwezvombo zvitsva kuri kutsigirwa zvikuru nevagadziri vezvombo pachavo. Kuzvifunga kwakakanganiswa, mukurumbira uri kuderera, uye kuomerwa mune zvemari kungave chinhu chakasimba chiri kuita kuti aya masayendisiti ane unyanzvi akurudzire kumutsiridza kunzverwa kwezvombo.
Nyika Itsva Dzinogadzira Nyukireya
Kunewo kuchinja kuri kuitika mumamirire ezvematongerwe enyika. Munguva yose yadarika iyi, marudzi mashanu ndiwo aiumba boka renyukireya: Britain, China, France, Russia, uye United States. Zvisinei, zvinozivikanwa nevakawanda kuti dzimwewo nyika dzakagadzira zvombo zvenyukireya. Somuenzaniso, India nePakistan dzichangobva kuputitsa zvombo zvadzo zvenyukireya dzichizviedza, zvakaparira kutya kwokuti kungangova nemakwikwi makuru ezvombo muSoutheast Asia. Dzimwe nyika dzinofungidzirwa kuva nezvirongwa zvenyukireya dzinosanganisira Algeria, Iran, Iraq, uye North Korea. Dzinopfuura nyika 180 dzakanyora Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, yakatanga kushanda muna 1970. Asi nanhasi, nyika dzakati kuti dzinofungidzirwa kuti dzakaviga ruzivo rwadzo rwenyukireya hadzisati dzanyora chibvumirano.
Asiaweek inoshuma kuti: “Nyanzvi dzokuwanda kwenyukireya dzichiri kudavira kuti kutyisidzira chaiko kunobva mukuwanda kwenhamba yenyika dzine vatungamiriri vanoda kuwana ruzivo rwenyukireya.” Vamwe vaongorori vanofunga kuti Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty haimbokwanisi kumisa hurumende dzakatsunga kuwana ruzivo rwekugadzira uye zvinoshandiswa pakugadzira zvombo zvenyukireya nechitsotsi, pasinei nezvirango. James Clapper, mutungamiriri weUnited States Defence Intelligence Agency, akafanotaura kuti: “Pamavambo ezana remakore rechi21 tinogona kuona nyika dzakawanda dzinokwanisa kugadzira chombo che[makemikoro, zvinhu zvipenyu, kana kuti nyukireya] chinogona kukandwa neunyanzvi.”
Uyewo hazviratidziki sokuti nyika dzose dzichateerera kurambidzwa kwokumanikidzira kuputitsa zvombo zvenyukireya dzichiedza. Apo nyika dzinoverengeka dzakanyengetedzwa kunyora Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty muna 1996, nyaya yomupepeti wenhau muAsiaweek yakati: “Hazvinetsi vanhu vokuAmerica neEurope kuti vaparidze mashoko okurambidzwa kwekuputitsa vachiedza, sezvo ivo vakatoputitsa zvombo zvenyukireya zvakakwana zvokuti vava kugona kurega kuputitsa sezvo vatova nemashoko akakwana.”
Kubiwa Kwenyukireya uye Ugandanga
Vamwe vanofunga kuti kutyisidzira kukuru kupinda kwose ndekwokuti boka ramagandanga ringangowana chombo chenyukireya ndokusarudza kuputitsa—kana kuti kutyisidzira kuda kuputitsa—chombo chacho kuitira kuti zvavanoda zvematongerwe enyika zviitwe. Zvinotyirwawo kuti sangano rechitsotsi rinogonawo kushandisa zvinhu zvinochetura kuti ripambe hurumende kana kuti imwe kambani huru. Imwe nyaya yaiva muScientific American inotsanangura kuti: “Zvaizova nyore zvikuru kuti munhu ane nyukireya anoda chioko muhomwe aratidze kuti anayo zvechokwadi nokusiya imwe shomanana kuti iongororwe. Kuzotyisidzira kushatisa mhepo kana kuti mvura, kana kuti kutoputitsa bhomba diki renyukireya, kwaizomuwanisa zvaanoda.” Masangano okuchengetedzwa kwemitemo akatowana kumwe kuedza kuba zvinhu zvenyukireya. Izvi zvinowedzera kutya kuti mapoka emagandanga angave zvechokwadi ari kutoedza kugadzira zvombo zvenyukireya.
Chokwadi, vamwe vanzveri vanoti kutya kubiwa kwenyukireya chinhu chidiki. Vanotaurawo kuti hazvisi zvinhu zvishomanana bedzi zvinogadzira nyukireya zvakatambidzanwa asi, kusiya kwezvishomanana, zvizhinji zvacho hazvikwanisi kugadzira zvombo. Zvisinei, Scientific American inoyeuchidza varavi kuti “muinenge misika yose isingabvumidzwi, chinhu chidiki-diki ndicho chinooneka, uye kuti hapana chikonzero chokuti tinofanira kufunga kuti zvinhu zvenyukireya zvichave zvakasiyana. . . . Kudavira kuti zviremera zviri kumisa inopfuura 80 muzana yokutengeserana kwaizova ufuza. Uyezve, kunyange kubiwa kudiki kungava nemigumisiro yakakura.”
Kunyange zvazvo uwandu chaihwo huri chakavanzika chikuru, zvinofungidzirwa kuti bhomba renyukireya rinoda makirogiramu ari pakati pe3 ne25 euranium chaiyo kana kuti pakati pekirogiramu rimwe chete nemasere eplutonium inogadziriswa zvombo. Zvinofadza vanoba kuti, makirogiramu 7 eplutonium anokwana mugaba diki realuminum rezvinwiwa zvinotonhora. Vamwe vanofunga kuti kunyange plutonium yakaderera—inowanika nyore kukunda inogadziriswa zvombo—inogona kushandiswa kugadzira bhombawo zvaro renyukireya, asi richiparadza zvakangodaro. Kana, sezvinotaura dzimwe nyanzvi, matura ezvinhu zvinochetura akasanyatsochengetedzwa, anogona kuva nyore kumbavha kupfuura zvingafungidzirwa nevanhu vakawanda. Mikhail Kulik, mumwe mukuru mukuru wekuRussia, akati: “Kunyange mbatatisi dzinenge dziri kutonyatsochengetedzwa nhasi kukunda zvinhu zvinochetura.”
Saka, zvakajeka kuti, kufanana nemunondo waDamocles, kutya nyukireya kuchiri muvanhu. Pane tariro yokuti kuchazombopedzwa here?
[Mashoko okukwezva vaverengi ari papeji 8]
“Nyanzvi dzokuwanda kwenyukireya dzichiri kudavira kuti kutyisidzira chaiko kunobva mukuwanda kwenhamba yenyika dzine vatungamiriri vanoda kuwana ruzivo rwenyukireya.”—Asiaweek
[Bhokisi/Mifananidzo iri papeji 6]
Kutyisidzira Kwezvinhu Zvipenyu uye Makemikoro
Nyika dzine chisimba dzine urombo hwokutadza kugadzira zvombo zvenyukireya dzingashandisa zvombo zviduku zvine muchetura kana kuti zvombo zvezvinhu zvipenyu. Izvi zvakatumidzwa kuti zvombo zvemurombo. Chaizvoizvo, vanzveri vakawanda vanotya kuti zvigadzirwa zvakadaro zvingashandiswawo nemapoka emagandanga.
Zvisinei, zvombo zvezvinhu zvipenyu uye makemikoro zvinogona kuparadza zvikuru kunyange pasina zvinhu zvakabudirira zvinokanda zvombo. Secretary of Defence weUnited States William Cohen muna November 1997 akati: “Neruzivo rwakakura rwokugadzira zvinhu uye miganhu yenyika iri nyore kuyambuka, kukwanisa kuparadzira chirwere, rufu uye kuparadza nhasi kwakura zvikuru. Mumwe munhu ari zindoga anopenga kana kuti boka ravanyanyisi rine bhotoro remakemikoro, bhakitiriya inokonzera chirwere, kana kuti bhombawo zvaro renyukireya anogona kutyisidzira kana kuti kuuraya makumi ezviuru zvavanhu muchiito chimwe choutsinye.” Kutya kwakadaro kwakaonekwa kuti kungangoitika apo rimwe boka ramagandanga rakashandisa sarin, chinhu chinochetura tsinga dzepfungwa, kudenha vafambi mumugwagwa wepasi pevhu muTokyo muna March 1995. Vanhu gumi nevaviri vakaurawa uye 5 500 vakakuvadzwa.
“Kana kurwisa kwemakemikoro kuchityisa, chombo chezvinhu zvipenyu chakatoipisisa,” anodaro purofesa wesayenzi yezvematongerwe enyika Leonard Cole. “Makemikoro zvinhu zvisina upenyu, asi bhakitiriya, utachiona uye zvimwe zvinhu zvipenyu zvinogona kunge zvichitapukira uye zvichiberekana. Kana zvikadzika midzi munharaunda, zvinogona kuwanda. Kusiyana nechimwe chombo chipi kana chipi, zvinogona kuva zvakaipa zvikuru mukufamba kwenguva.”
Mukuedza kuderedza kuwanda kwezvombo zvemakemikoro uye zvezvinhu zvipenyu, Chibvumirano cheBiological and Toxin Weapons cha1972 uye Chibvumirano cheChemical Weapons cha1993 chakaitwa. Zvisinei, The Economist inoti, pasinei zvapo nevavariro dzakanaka, “hapana hurumende inodzora zvombo yakakwana. . . . Havakwanisi kuona zvikanganiso zvose.” Magazini iyoyo inoti: “Uye, chokwadika, vanyengeri chaivo havamboratidzi kuti vachanyora chibvumirano.”
[Mifananidzo]
Masangano ezviremera zvokuchengetedzwa kwemitemo anotyira kuti zvombo zvemakemikoro kana kuti zvinhu zvipenyu zvingashandiswa nyore nemagandanga
[Mepu iri papeji 7]
(Kana uchida mashoko azere, ona bhuku racho)
Nyika dzinokwanisa kugadzira nyukireya
BRITAIN
CHINA
FRANCE
RUSSIA
UNITED STATES
Nyika dzinozivikanwa kuti dzakaputitsa nyukireya dzichiedza
INDIA
ISRAEL
PAKISTAN
Nyika dzinofungidzirwa kuti dziri kudzidzira kugadzira nyukireya
ALGERIA
IRAN
IRAQ
NORTH KOREA
[Mufananidzo uri papeji 4, 5]
Kukanda bhomba renyukireya rinonzi B-61, rakagadzirirwa kuparadza zvivako zviri pasi pevhu
[Kwazvakatorwa]
U.S. Air Force Photo
[Vakatipa Mufananidzo uri papeji 4]
U.S. Air Force Photo